Somalia

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Post 1

Insightful article about Somalia’s increasing fragility.

I’ll spend time this week sharing some thoughts about the implications of potential collapse, the impact of possible criminal governance, and background about al-Shabaab.

Somalia has a long history of complex, concurrent crises and conflicts. The last few years the government in Mogadishu appeared to be making progress.

However, al-Shabaab is a well financed and powerful terrorist organization. Defeating this group is no small task.

Post 2

Before I go into a discussion about al-Shabaab and other threats in Somalia, it’s important to understand the state’s history and its culture. Understanding the human domain is a critical aspect when considering how to respond to and resolve any significant crises or conflict. Whether you're trying to provide aid, leverage knowledge, or trying to influence a population, you must first understand its dynamics, history, culture, and demographics.

Background

Somalia, formally the Federal Republic of Somalia, is often cited as a dangerous territory, and there are legitimate reasons for this description.

Over the last three decades, Somalia has experienced endless challenges including state collapse and endless conflict. More specifically, Somalia has experienced civil war, transnational terrorism, high rates of violent crimes, and genocide. In addition, it has also been challenged by famine, the negative effects of climate change, piracy, and other issues that are arguably affecting its stability.

Somalia became an independent nation in 1960, and in the same year the United States established diplomatic relations. Since its independence from British and Italian administrations, the state has experienced significant hardships, including a collapse of its government.

Somalia is not as large as other countries in Africa. Its 2022 population is estimated around 19 million (an increase since 2022). Located in the Horn of Africa, Somalia borders Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti. Its capital is Mogadishu, which borders the Indian Ocean.

State dynamics

It is important to understand two other regions often referenced when discussing Somalia: Puntland and Somaliland. While Somalia is recognized as an official state, Puntland and Somaliland are not. Somaliland seceded from Somalia in 1991, shortly after the Isaaq genocide, and has been successful in establishing a functional government and society. Despite this success, Somaliland is not recognized internationally an official state. Puntland is also another region that separated itself from Somalia and declared autonomy in 1998, but also not internationally recognized as a state and it is not seeking that status.

Culture, Society, and Government

Somalis have an inherent strong sense of identity. Somalia is often recognized as ethnically, linguistically, and religiously homogenous. The primary ethnic groups include Somali, Bantu and other non-Somali. While multiple languages are spoken in Somalia, the most common languages are Somali, Arabic, Italian, and English. Their most common religion is Sunni Muslim.

Clans

While Somalis collectively have a strong sense of identity, its clan system is complex, and its structure evolves over time. It is not uncommon for clans to break up into sub-clans, sub-sub clans, and even further. I can’t emphasize enough - a foot stomp here - how critical it is to acknowledge and conceptually accept that the clan system is complex and ever-changing. This helps when it comes to addressing issues within Somalia whether it’s strategies to combat terrorism or why clans or sub-clans may be in a current conflict with one another.

Diaspora

In addition, Somalia also has a large and loyal diaspora. Due to the conflict, many Somalis have sought refuge in neighboring countries and other parts of the world like Europe, Canada, and the United States. Other unique facts about Somali culture are that they value camels, enjoy eating bananas with their meals, have a general distaste for fish, and some are known to chew khat.

Currency

While the official currency in Somalia is the Schilling, a lot of its population uses the USD and operates on a cashless system.. Despite its ongoing conflicts and disasters, Somalia has been able to be at the forefront of economic and technological innovation by becoming an almost cashless society.

President

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud was elected to serve as President of Somalia in May 2022, defeating the incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed. This leadership role is not new for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as he previously served as Somalia’s President from 2012 until 2017. Whether the President will be able to help shape Somalia into stability and peace remains to be seen. He has many challenges to address, any of which can single-handedly destroy a nation.

Post 3

To understand what's going on today, you must examine the past.

Through researching civil wars in history, scholars have identified some possible predictors of war, including political instability, the rate of change, the existence of factions, a state’s Polity score, its ethnic and religious homogeneity, and other variables and measures. 

Predictors give existing governments a reference point to further examine possible threats and take necessary steps to prevent a civil war from occurring. However, not all predictors are absolute. 

When Somalia’s civil war broke out, it was still a relatively young country. Some scholars argue the cause of the civil war in Somalia can be surmised by the struggle of power and government control.

And when Somalia collapsed, its government had a difficult time stabilizing and rebuilding its infrastructure, essential government services, and institutions. This long-term instability led to an increase in terrorism within Somalia’s borders. For several years, Somalia has been plagued by violence and extremism. Groups like al-Shabaab continue to resurge, and fighting continues today.  

Some things about al-Shabaab you may or may not already know: 

1. al-Shabaab emerged around December 2006 after breaking away from the Islamic Courts Union (ICU).

2. al-Shabaab’s ideology is not confined to its borders which often impacts the wider HOA.

3. While al-Shabaab generally targets government officials and those who deemed to be supporting the government (e.g., humanitarian aid workers), there have been many highly visible civilian attacks like the Westgate mall attack in Nairobi, Kenya in 2013, a restaurant attack in Djibouti in 2014, and the massacre of university students in Garissa, Kenya in 2015.

4. al-Shabaab has suicide bombers ready to attack (often with what seems to be a moment’s notice). 

5. It can be difficult to identify who is a member of al-Shabaab and who isn’t because of their integration in communities and recruitment tactics. Fear of retaliation may also be a concern. 

6. They have been able to financially sustain themselves through taxing local businesses, farmers, and other methods. 

7. They may also leverage the Internet for fundraising. 

8. One report suggests more than $100M USD annually 

Here are some open-source resources you might find interesting that discuss al-Shabaab in greater detail, including Stanford University’s Mapping Militants Project. 

• https://ctc.westpoint.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Targeted-Terror-3.pdf

• https://www.amazon.com/Everything-You-Have-Told-True/dp/1787381242 

• https://www.amazon.com/Getting-Somalia-Wrong-Shattered-Arguments/dp/184277932X 

• https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/al-shabaab 

• http://ipus.snu.ac.kr/eng/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/07/09_IN-Nyadera-and-MS-Ahmed.pdf

Post 4

Food insecurity and famine are often a result of conflict.

The ongoing conflict in Somalia is arguably a factor why food insecurity has been a recurring crisis since 1991. Today’s war between Ukraine and Russia is also a factor. Other reasons why Somalia is susceptible to food insecurity include, but are not limited to: 

1. Conflicts between clans

2. al-Shabaab

3. Drought

4. Cost of food  

5. Difficulty in getting aid to rural areas – particularly the south 

6. Supply chain disruptions

For Somalia to stabilize and recover from food insecurity, there are several issues that need to be resolved. Many of these actionable items are seemingly easy to address in theory, but given the reality of Somalia’s ongoing conflicts and the presence of al-Shabaab, they have proven difficult to implement.

Some Recommendations

First, humanitarian aid and resources need to get to Somalia’s rural communities. Because of the current security threats and the presence of al-Shabaab, it is difficult to reach Somalia’s most vulnerable.

Second, external communications regarding future famine in Somalia could be improved. While famine is a technical term in which specific characteristics must be met, there needs to be improvements in communicating to the international community that famine is a possibility and action is required to mitigate the threat.

Third, policies specific to when famine can be declared may need to be adjusted. When a state declares famine, thousands of fatalities among vulnerable populations (e.g., children, elderly) occur. It is possible that the number of fatalities from severe food insecurity can be reduced if a pre-emptive declaration of famine can be made so that international organizations are able to divert resources and aid to reduce the threat. 

Finally, when famine occurs, there will be extraordinary stress on a state’s healthcare infrastructure including, but not limited to the need for nurses, doctors, hospital beds, medicine, and treatment for related maladies. Given that food security continues to be a threat in Somalia, the government needs to prioritize the development of its healthcare infrastructure to effectively respond so lives can be saved in both the short term, and also the long term as survivors may develop complications from malnourishment. 

Full article about food insecurity in Somalia (with references/sources).